Time IN the market, not TIMING the market
This one’s a “freebie” for primary homeowners who know in their guts that real estate is a good investment. And, they’re right. Problem is, when they’ve built their equity and it’s time to sell, they have a decision to make: What to do with all that equity. Most folks want to move. This one’s for them.
For the investors out there, you’re not sitting on a house long enough to have to worry about when to buy and when to sell. You buy, rehab, and sell – QUICKLY! For an investor, it’s the number of deals per year that counts; not how much of a killing you’ll make on one lonely house.
Consider the following chart. It’s simplistic but simple is good. It helps you get your head around the concept.
You’re in the middle. You bought your house for $100K. It was the most you could afford at the time. Still, you would have preferred the bigger house but it would’ve cost you $200K. You were $100K short so you bought as much as you could afford at the time: Your $100,000 dollar house.
| Trading Up – The Effect of Price Changes | |||
| % Up/Down | Current House | Bigger House | Difference |
| +10% | $133K | $266K | $133K |
| +10% | $121K | $242K | $121K |
| +10% | $110K | $220K | $110K |
| Bought here | $100K | $200K | $100K |
| -10% | $90K | $180K | $90K |
| -10% | $81K | $162K | $81K |
| -10% | $73K | $146K | $73K |
The chart shows 10% price increases over some period of time. Call it a year. Pretend that each year, prices increase or decrease by 10%.
Study the Difference column. Did you notice how your dream house got further and further away the more your own house increased in value? When you first bought, you were only $100K away from owning that nice, big house. Three years later, you’re $133K away. Not good if you’re looking to trade up.
On the other hand, as your own house dropped in value, so did the big one! Three years later, your dream house is only $73K away. MUCH more affordable.
- If you’re trading up, falling prices is what you want.
- If you’re trading down, rising prices are for you.
Trading down? Same chart, flip the numbers. The difference becomes your profit.
| Trading Down – The Effect of Price Changes | |||
| % Up/Down | Current House | Smaller House | Profit |
| +10% | $266K | $133K | $133K |
| +10% | $242K | $121K | $121K |
| +10% | $220K | $110K | $110K |
| Bought here | $200K | $100K | $100K |
| -10% | $180K | $90K | $90K |
| -10% | $162K | $81K | $81K |
| -10% | $146K | $73K | $73K |
If prices haven’t moved since you bought your big $200,000 dollar house and you sold it to buy the smaller one, you’d make $100K on the deal. If you waited three years and prices went up, you’d make even more: $133K. If, on the other hand, prices dropped over three years, you’d only make $73K. But, a profit is a profit, after all.
This is very powerful knowledge. Be careful with it. These are generalities. There are many other variables to consider. Chief among them are interest rates or the “cost of money.” This was discussed at great length in Great Rates. You must also consider what your dreams are and what your current cost of living is. If you’re dreaming of a big house, go out and buy it! Life’s too short. If you need to downsize, stop paying bills you don’t have to. Buy that smaller house! Life’s too short.
Knowing when to buy and when to sell trips up many homeowners. It needn’t be overly complicated. Waiting for the absolute top and the absolute bottom of the market will trip you up. You could lose money and get hurt when you’re frozen by indecision. If the full-time professionals can’t get it right, you don’t stand a chance (Read Can’t Predict the Bottom). Instead, getting it “almost right” can be just as good.
It’s been said that more is lost by indecision than by the wrong decision. This is true in buying and selling real estate, too. Waiting to make your purchase and missing an opportunity, or holding on too long and losing money can be disasterous.
Consider the face of a clock. Anything from 11 o’clock to 1 o’clock is the top of the market. Anything from 5 o’clock to 7 o’clock represents the bottom of the market. Don’t worry about hitting the exact top at 12 o’clock or the exact bottom at 6 o’clock. Be happy with buying your dream anywhere in the 11-1 o’clock or 5-7 o’clock ranges and you won’t get hurt. Where do YOU think prices are in the current cycle? Why? Leave a comment below.
